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While the duration of the conflict and the peak of oil prices remain unpredictable, there is a silver lining. Analysts note that the BDT is not as significantly overvalued today as it was in 2022. Consequently, any potential "crash" or magnitude of depreciation is expected to be much lower than the volatility witnessed two years ago.
A prolonged conflict in the Middle East would likely trigger a slump in consumer demand in Western markets, leaving the RMG sector vulnerable to the dual blow of dwindling orders and the logistical nightmare of disrupted maritime routes.
If the BNP's goal had been to signal to the Bangladeshi people that everything their adversaries say about them is true, that nothing has changed from the time they were last in office 20 years ago, that they remain exactly the same party of cronyism, corruption, and contempt for public opinion, they could not have done a better job.
A country aspiring to become a trillion dollar economy cannot afford to operate with manual, subjective, or personality-driven oversight. It needs strong institutions delivering predictable outcomes.
Without urgent steps to make Bangladesh Bank truly autonomous and accountable, meaningful economic reform will remain incomplete.
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