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The most important reforms, including tax modernization, banking-sector restructuring, and stronger central bank independence, remain incomplete. The coming budget will therefore be more than a financial document. It will be the first serious indication of whether the government intends to match cautious rhetoric with sustained reform.
The immediate steps are neither mysterious nor technically complex: Broadening the VAT base by reducing exemptions, strengthening the Large Taxpayer Unit to capture income from professionals and the informal wealthy, and automating tax administration to reduce discretion and corruption.
Not only is the government expected to manage the current account deficit, but it is also expected to service the debt obligations it has inherited and pay for its electoral commitments, and yet somehow manage to bring inflation down.
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