While it would be presumptuous to predict a Jamaat victory in the upcoming elections on February 12, the BNP and other secular and liberal democratic parties must acknowledge the emergence of a Third Party with a moderate Islamic agenda that could gain power in the next round of elections in 2031.
Bangladesh needs leaders willing to say what I believe must be said: Crimes against humanity warrant organizational accountability, but only through a judicial process that respects rule of law. That is the stance Tarique must take.
The lesson of recent first-past-the-post elections, from Britain to South Asia, is that victory belongs to the party that combines breadth with discipline. BNP has achieved the former. The task now is to execute the latter: Defend marginal constituencies, prioritize candidate quality, and treat every seat as winnable.
Nothing in recent geopolitical trends suggests pressures on Bangladesh’s economy are going to get simpler. Everything points to a need to accept that simply returning to the status quo will be insufficient. The economy must exceed both performance and expectations of the past if the nation is ever to hope to catch up with its competitors.
After liberation in 1971, the decisions made in those first years shaped the country for decades. The people who rise to state power or prominence in the next few years will define Bangladesh's trajectory for a generation.
Why “Bangladesh First” Is Coherent Politics and “We Are the People” Is a Theological Trap for Jamaat. The first is a moral ordering principle which prioritizes responsibility. The second is a sovereignty claim and defines power.
Is tinkering with the formal rules of the game the triumph of hope over experience (this time politics will be different)? Or a more technocratic faith in the power of institutional architecture to push back against the potent political imperatives of rents and control (we can design our way to democracy)? Either way, fixing the rules seems a misplaced focus when history has shown that the amassing of political power rapidly renders such niceties ornamental.
Whatever path you ultimately choose, I offer you my sincere best wishes. May your journey ahead be guided by wisdom, courage, and purpose -- and may it be as smooth and fulfilling as destiny permits.
In a riverine land such as ours, mainstream might be a more evocative term -- BNP represents the confluence of various cultural, historical, social milieus that continue to flow through us. As Mrs Zia has memorably put it, BNP situates itself to the left of the right, and to the right of the left.
As we enter the final phase before elections Jamaat-e-Islami may be poised to win far more votes than previously predicted. There is still time for BNP to regain the momentum if it appreciates the situation and pivots accordingly. But there is little evidence that it does so.
The axes of Bangladeshi politics have shifted dramatically. Where do the political parties line up in the new dynamic?
Tarique Rahman’s return is undeniably historic. But history alone does not guarantee success. The comparison with 1972 is not about personalities -- it is about the structural burden placed on returning leaders in moments of national uncertainty.
That Bangladesh did not turn into a hardcore right-wing country is because of Tarique. The country continues to progress as a centrist, tolerant nation. For this, we should forever remain indebted to him.
Tarique returns to Bangladesh as the indispensable man of Bangladeshi politics, the fulcrum of its democratic transition, the lynchpin of its liberal politics, and the prime minister in waiting.
He will be judged relentlessly -- by the standards set by his parents, both as leaders and as human beings. This is not merely the end of a prolonged absence abroad; it marks the closure of a painful chapter shaped more by political banishment than personal choice.
Khaleda Zia’s mixed record of democratic contribution, confrontation-driven politics and unresolved party succession continues to influence the country’s search for renewed leadership
