Tarique Rahman can do what Sheikh Hasina would not: trust the Parliament he leads. Let it examine the Yunus era, line by line. Keep what works. Amend what can be saved. In that sequence, through that process, a course will emerge.
The winners and losers, and those in between, in the aftermath of the February 12 polls
What did the February 12 elections mean for the future of Bangladesh?
Jamaat can only win if this is a wave election, signaling a tectonic shift in the national mood. There is little evidence of this in the polls and available data. It is possible, but not probable.
While turnout may not reach historic highs, it is nonetheless expected that up to 70% of voters will participate. Yet, as election day draws near, a palpable sense of anxiety and security concern has settled over the public.
As Bangladesh enters into its first real general election since 2008, we will finally be given a snapshot of where the country stands electorally. Have the polls and the pundits called it correctly, or are we in for a February surprise? Only Election Day will tell.
While it would be presumptuous to predict a Jamaat victory in the upcoming elections on February 12, the BNP and other secular and liberal democratic parties must acknowledge the emergence of a Third Party with a moderate Islamic agenda that could gain power in the next round of elections in 2031.
Bangladesh needs leaders willing to say what I believe must be said: Crimes against humanity warrant organizational accountability, but only through a judicial process that respects rule of law. That is the stance Tarique must take.
The lesson of recent first-past-the-post elections, from Britain to South Asia, is that victory belongs to the party that combines breadth with discipline. BNP has achieved the former. The task now is to execute the latter: Defend marginal constituencies, prioritize candidate quality, and treat every seat as winnable.
Nothing in recent geopolitical trends suggests pressures on Bangladesh’s economy are going to get simpler. Everything points to a need to accept that simply returning to the status quo will be insufficient. The economy must exceed both performance and expectations of the past if the nation is ever to hope to catch up with its competitors.
After liberation in 1971, the decisions made in those first years shaped the country for decades. The people who rise to state power or prominence in the next few years will define Bangladesh's trajectory for a generation.
Why “Bangladesh First” Is Coherent Politics and “We Are the People” Is a Theological Trap for Jamaat. The first is a moral ordering principle which prioritizes responsibility. The second is a sovereignty claim and defines power.
Is tinkering with the formal rules of the game the triumph of hope over experience (this time politics will be different)? Or a more technocratic faith in the power of institutional architecture to push back against the potent political imperatives of rents and control (we can design our way to democracy)? Either way, fixing the rules seems a misplaced focus when history has shown that the amassing of political power rapidly renders such niceties ornamental.
Whatever path you ultimately choose, I offer you my sincere best wishes. May your journey ahead be guided by wisdom, courage, and purpose -- and may it be as smooth and fulfilling as destiny permits.
In a riverine land such as ours, mainstream might be a more evocative term -- BNP represents the confluence of various cultural, historical, social milieus that continue to flow through us. As Mrs Zia has memorably put it, BNP situates itself to the left of the right, and to the right of the left.
As we enter the final phase before elections Jamaat-e-Islami may be poised to win far more votes than previously predicted. There is still time for BNP to regain the momentum if it appreciates the situation and pivots accordingly. But there is little evidence that it does so.
