As Bangladesh prepares for the long-awaited national election, it is important to remember that strengthening democracy and building peace on the foundation of collective amnesia will be a disaster for our nation.
As Bangladesh enters into its first real general election since 2008, we will finally be given a snapshot of where the country stands electorally. Have the polls and the pundits called it correctly, or are we in for a February surprise? Only Election Day will tell.
Foreign observers will not, and cannot, answer the big questions. At best, they can marginally increase the reputational cost of blatant fraud. At worst, they offer political elites an easy scapegoat, deflecting public anger away from those who truly failed.
The lesson of recent first-past-the-post elections, from Britain to South Asia, is that victory belongs to the party that combines breadth with discipline. BNP has achieved the former. The task now is to execute the latter: Defend marginal constituencies, prioritize candidate quality, and treat every seat as winnable.
The NCP is still young. Its leaders are young. When it was launched, the response was electric; crowds gathered wherever it went. That energy is now waning. The atrophy has begun -- but it is not irreversible.
The notion that Jamaat-e-Islami is on the cusp of ruling Bangladesh tells us less about Bangladesh’s politics and more about the fantasies and anxieties of those observing it from insulated rooms.
Arithmetic still points to a BNP-led alliance winning, with a Jamaat-led alliance more likely to land as the principal opposition. The caveat is that Bangladesh has not had credible elections since 2008, so any confident prediction about voting behaviour is just that: An informed forecast, not a guarantee.
The axes of Bangladeshi politics have shifted dramatically. Where do the political parties line up in the new dynamic?
The timing could not be more appropriate. With election dates announced, the country has slipped into a familiar trance. What is striking is not what is being said, but what is being omitted. There is almost no sustained conversation about how Bangladesh will pay its bills, grow its industries, or persuade its own citizens to invest in their own country again.
Hadi wanted elections. He believed in the electoral process. He believed in democracy. He was running for election in Dhaka-8. He believed in the slow, painstaking process of building a new Bangladesh and knew there could be no short-cuts.
The activities of the last few days are dissipating the election-centric uncertainty. It is also clear from the behavior and actions of the political parties that they are taking the upcoming election seriously. Each party will make the utmost effort to earn the people's mandate according to its capacity. This is the biggest positive signal.
As the country gears up for what is going to be the most consequential national election in its independent history, a locally grown form of online harm, deliberately engineered to fuel targeted disinformation campaigns and rampant misinformation among a largely digitally illiterate population, is posing a serious threat to its efforts to transition from authoritarianism to democracy.
We do not need to be perfect voters, and we do not need to know every answer. In a transitional period, what matters is the willingness to participate and the courage to relearn what authoritarianism tried to take away: that our voices count and that democracy is a skill we can rebuild together.
The real victory of any revolution lies not in the fall of an old regime but in the birth of a culture that resists repeating its mistakes. Bangladesh’s revolution will have meaning only if it leads to a politics that listens, includes, and endures.
We stand today at a critical juncture. The authoritarian state has collapsed, but the authoritarian mind endures. The struggle for democracy, therefore, is no longer against a regime -- it is against ourselves.
Until democracy regains its moral soul -- until citizens can question without fear and leaders can lose power without vengeance -- it will remain a performance, not a principle. And if this performance continues, one morning we will awaken to discover that democracy has quietly turned into its opposite.
