To the Election and Beyond

We are in the homestretch of the election campaign, with less than a week to voting as this piece is being written.

Offline as well as in the virtual world, election is the main topic of conversation. Parties are out with their manifestos, promising all sorts of transfers and handouts -- where the dough will come from to dole these out, that’s for another time.

Politicians are shooting their mouth, and fingers, off with verbal or social media gaffes. 

And then there are polls. Befitting a competitive, democratic election, every other day a new poll is being released.

Some are nationwide, others look at a particular demographic segment or geographic region.

Some are methodologically more sound than others, the Innovision People’s Election Pulse Survey being the most robust of all. 

And they just released their third survey, showing strong support for BNP. Almost 53% of respondents said they might vote for BNP. To put that in context, the then four-party alliance won 47% of votes cast in 2001, while the then AL-led Grand Alliance won around 56% in 2008.

That is, looking at the headline figure, one might conclude that BNP is on course to win a record haul, surpassing the 207 seats they won in 1979.

Under the first past the post voting system such as ours, geographic distribution of votes is a major factor in the parties’ seat count.

Previous rounds of Innovision poll (in March and September 2025) suggest that BNP’s support is relatively uniform across the country.

In contrast, Jamaat support is regionally concentrated in the western side of the country -- Rangpur, Rajshahi, Khulna, and Barishal divisions.

Most of the 30-40 seats where Jamaat ran under the then four-party alliance in 2001, 2008 and 2018 were in these divisions, as were most of the 18 Jamaat MPs in the 1991 parliament. 

Further, on the ground reporting suggests that Jamaat may be concentrating its efforts in these divisions, and aiming to win 75-80 seats there (plus perhaps another couple of dozen in the eastern divisions).

If the poll and the reporting were broadly correct, then simple arithmetic would imply a fascinating result -- where it wins, Jamaat may be winning narrowly, but where it loses, it might lose big, with the lopsidedness rising with Jamaat’s seat haul.

If this scenario were to come to pass, the several-fold increase in Jamaat’s seats (compared to historical patterns) will mask a potential structural weakness in future. 

Some numbers might clarify. In a seat where Jamaat comes second by 20% margin this time is a seat it can be competitive in five years from now. It is considerably harder if the margin is 40%.

If Jamaat’s campaign strategy results in a lot of seats with large margin of losses, it will make things that much harder for the party to aim for office in 2031.

That is, a Jamaat victory riding the anti-incumbency wave in coming years isn’t inevitable. And as noted last week, the party’s ideological faultlines, particularly with respect to social issues, will need be resolved in the coming years.[1]

For example, the party’s reactionary positioning on gender issues have come under scrutiny in recent days, signalling what is yet to come.

That said, the fact that we are even talking about a potential Jamaat government, in 2031 if not now, indicates a seismic shift in our political landscape.

At the least, Jamaat will emerge as the opposition party next week. They will be as much under the spotlight as the government in that scenario, from the very morning after.

Will they concede the election, or cry shukkho karchupi (micro-rigging) a la Sheikh Hasina, will they collaborate with the government in amending the constitution, or will they be obstructionist opposition hell-bent on not giving the government ek muhurto shanti (a moment of peace, something Hasina vowed to not give Prime Minister Khaleda Zia in 1991).

Of course, Innovision could be wrong in its headline figures. They do report that a quarter of respondents are yet to decide. Further, younger and more educated voters prefer Jamaat. A hung parliament cannot categorically be ruled out, nor a Jamaat plurality.

In that event, will BNP concede the election?

As things stand, however, BNP does appear more likely than not to win a comfortable majority. Indeed, a two-thirds majority is very much plausible. What will the fourth BNP government be like?

Its campaign promises and rhetoric give us a clue.

The party is promising transfers and cash support to poor households and for social protection. It is appealing to the farmers, labourers, and the working poor.

These are the people who flocked to the party’s meetings across the country in 2022-23, defying state violence deployed by the Hasina regime. 

And Innovision (and other) polls tell us that the party is more popular among the poorer sections of the society.

Of course, the BNP has always had a redistributionist, welfarist wing, coming from the socialist-communist tradition. The party Secretary General, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, for example, started his political life as a pro-Peking radical in the 1960s.

At the same time, the party has stressed that a durable economic recovery is only possible through strong private investment. Previous BNP governments pursued pro-market reforms to liberalize, deregulate, and privatize.

Its de facto finance spokesperson, Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, has stated that a BNP government will be investment-friendly. 

Investment-friendly, however, doesn't mean libertarian. In his deliberations at the Consensus Commission on constitutional reforms, Salahuddin Ahmed has stressed the need for a strong and capable executive branch, and cautioned against radical, disruptive changes.

Then there is Tarique Rahman, the party’s new chairperson. Soft-spoken, but firmly articulate, Mr Rahman has eschewed soaring rhetoric through which most politicians try to mimic Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, introducing a town hall meeting type style where he talks about his priorities. Befitting a man who has lived in a liberal western city for 17 years, he has made environment and gender issues key priorities.

And all of them, and others in the party, have reaffirmed their commitment to the values of the Liberation War.

All of them talk about reconciliation and social harmony. Interestingly, according to Innovision, a plurality (if not majority) of former Awami League voters may vote for BNP next week.

That is, going into the election, arguably BNP has a lock on the Matiur-Mansur voters, while maintaining significant support of Mahmudur-Mazhar voters.[2]

Whether they deliver, should they win, only time will tell.

 Jyoti Rahman is Executive Editor of the weekly Counterpoint.