The Road Ahead for Abdul El-Sayed

A US Senate race in a midwestern state has drawn the nation’s attention. Dr. Abdul El-Sayed’s run as the Democratic candidate has gained prominence, not only as this competitive race against former US Representative Mike Rogers can determine the Senate majority, but also due to the Egyptian-origin candidate’s criticism of Israel.

The physician and public health official will be the first Muslim US Senator, if elected this November. His message of lowering costs, providing universal healthcare, and banning corporate funding to politicians has resonated with the masses. El-Sayed tapped into the frustrations of everyday citizens and has highlighted political leadership that is beholden to a foreign government. This, combined with fluency in podcasts, social media, and the rare ability to connect with audiences has catapulted him to be the standard-bearer of the Democratic Party in Michigan.

El-Sayed narrowly defeated the Democratic US representative who was backed by the party’s establishment. His opponent in the primary election received $32 million from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which is now committed to defeat him in the general election, with $80 million funding at its discretion. The lobbying group wants American voters to reject “Dr. El-Sayed and his radical anti-Israel agenda.”

This has been AIPAC’s largest investment in a single race, most likely as El-Sayed dared to call the Gaza War a genocide and ending US military aid to Israel. He has noted Israel’s human rights abuses and apartheid against Palestinians as well, causing the massive armada of pro-Israel lobby to home in on his candidacy.

An Uphill Task

The charismatic campaigner faces formidable odds on the road to Capitol Hill. His opponent Mike Rogers has been strongly endorsed by President Trump, who has used an expletive to describe El-Sayed. Moreover, Vice President Vance has warned that this candidate wants to bring sharia law, calling him very evil. Likewise, the Senate Leadership Fund, a super political action committee, has committed $51 million to Rogers. Adding onto this, three prominent Democratic donors have even hosted a fundraiser for the Republican opponent.

Although El-Sayed has committed to the safety of Jewish constituents, his criticism of Israel is said to have warded off some of these voters, who account for 1.4% of the electorate. In 2024, Rogers narrowly lost the 2024 Senate race by merely 19,000 votes, less than 0.4 percentage points.

What Do the Polls Say?

An EPIC-MRA poll conducted in late August among 600 likely voters depicts El-Sayed leading with 47%, compared to Rogers at 43%. Second, another poll of 800 voters by Susquehanna Polling and Research from mid-August places El-Sayed ahead of Rogers by 7 points.

This firm is rated second in accuracy by Real Clear Politics. Third, Fox News’s survey from early August of more than 1,000 Michigan voters yielded a 51% edge to Rogers as opposed to 47% for El-Sayed. Unsurprisingly, rural white voters and men without degrees formed the core group for the Republican.

El-Sayed has the support of blacks, urban residents, and women with degrees. Although we clearly see that El-Sayed is gaining ground, polling only represents half the picture, as voters need to actually show up during election day. We only need to look at the presidential elections of 2016 and 2024; both times the polls depicted the Democratic candidate to win.

A Viable Path Forward

In 2024, Michigan had a strong turnout with more than 5.7 million votes, with 74.6% of eligible voters casting a ballot. Judging by the primary election, El-Sayed has strongholds among the minorities and youth, winning city centers and almost all of the college towns. His campaign has rejected corporate political action committee donations, and has raised nearly $15 million through mostly grassroots small-dollar donations. He has received an estimated $3.5 million from progressive advocacy groups and pro-Palestine donors.

As El-Sayed is running against a formidable opponent who has the President’s full-on support and AIPAC’s funds, this requires El-Sayed’s side to win over not just the Democrats, but independents as well. His campaign team is canvassing across Michigan to garner votes, solid engagement with the black voting bloc is taking place, in addition to outreach to the Jewish community.

Since 2023, the matter of protecting Israel at any costs has had a dynamic shift in American society. Case in point, 55% of Michigan voters approve of eliminating military aid to Israel, according to the Fox News poll. The lack of support for Israel among Michigan voters may be a prime reason why the Rogers’ campaign has asked AIPAC not to run ads against his rival, as these political advertisements must declare who is sponsoring the content.

Although Democrats should win Michigan on November 3rd, as the state has elected this party’s candidate for Senate since the new millennium, El-Sayed will underperform when compared to a moderate Democrat, predicted the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, which has declared the state as a tossup.

Why Him?

If El-Sayed makes it to the US Senate, we can expect an advocate for universal healthcare, ending billion-dollar support to a genocidal regime, and removing the thorn of corporate funding for elected officials. Even if he is in the minority within the Democratic Party, having a voice in the upper chamber of America’s parliament will make significant advancement for these progressive causes.

El-Sayed has successfully summarized America’s brilliance and pitfalls: “I know what America can do for somebody. I just know that too often America does not do that for too many of her kids.”

Born to Egyptian Muslim parents, he wants to make a positive difference in the lives of everyday Americans. It’s a matter of pride that he boldly speaks of his Muslim faith, despite the horrendous backlash faced by this community, especially if someone dares to try rising to the ruling class.

Too often, anti-Zionism is conflated with antisemitism. This outdated, faulty argument must be countered head on -- being against genocide by the Israeli government against Palestinians does not equate to being against those of the Jewish faith.

If someone is against the Saudi government for human rights violations and suppressing democracy, it most certainly does not mean they are anti-Muslim. This fallacy of an argument is exactly what the Israeli lobby has conducted for years, and it’s about time the US citizenry rejects this. In this scenario, Abdul El-Sayed stands as the voice of reason, one that should be adhered to by the US government.

Tamim Choudhury is a public affairs specialist for an international volunteering agency. The views expressed are of his own.