A Majority Government without a Majority Mandate

A few months ago, I wrote an article about ‘collective myopia’ of the BNP leadership mostly out of disappointment of post-July expectations. It seemed that BNP abandoned their center right position to pander more to the center left and failed to own the ‘July Uprising’ and missed a golden opportunity to become a people’s party rather than a party of the few.

It was also a missed opportunity for Tarique Zia to become a national leader and unifying character. With the election results delivering two-thirds majority of parliamentarian seats, it seems the gamble paid off for BNP quite well.

But the devil is in the details that might come back to haunt BNP sooner rather than later.

It has only been a few weeks since the 2026 election and the parliament is not even in session yet. So, it would be unfair to the BNP government to level harsh criticisms so early. But if morning is the precursor of anything, there are reasons to be concerned, and a few major decisions, definitely, need further scrutiny to say the least.

BNP’s refusal to take oath for the constituent assembly on the very first day is deemed a betrayal to the ‘July spirit’ by many. How BNP leadership flip-flopped on the referendum throughout the events leading up to the election can be considered politics, but this politics may not go down well with the 68% of the people who voted for Yes, a number far exceeding the 51% who voted for BNP-led alliance.

Whether BNP implements the July Charter through some other means is yet to be seen, but their unceremonious rejection of the referendum will stay in people’s mind. If they are betting on people’s goldfish memory, then that might not be prudent. Especially, in this time and age of internet and social media when every single image, word, or actions live forever. People forget but betrayals are hard to forget.

Since election, despite what Tarique Zia and some of the leaders have been saying, we have seen extortions and violence continue, and the ‘bold’ decision to immediately replace a proven expert with a partisan businessman at the helm of the Bangladesh Bank has raised eyebrows even from ardent BNP supporters, while most pro-BNP supporters dismissed any concerns citing BNP’s right to unilateral decision, flaunting two-thirds majority win.

There’s an air of confidence, and if I may dare, that is borderline arrogance among some supporters and leaders in the very early days of this BNP government.  But does BNP really have the mandate of the majority of the people in Bangladesh?

Out of the 12.8 crore registered voters, 59.4% (approx. 7.6 crore) voted in the 2026 election. That meant 40.6% voters did not vote. This election for many reasons was different from previous ones. Traditionally, casting of votes doesn’t exceed 70-75% in Bangladesh elections.

Conservatively, if we say, 25% would not have voted anyways, then at least 10-15% (deduced from 70-75% expected casting vs. 59.4% actual) people who were likely to vote in any other elections, didn’t vote in this one. It is fair to assume that they are mostly Awami League supporters with few exceptions.

The distribution of the cast vote by party are as follows (figure 1):

BNP-led Alliance received 51.1% of the votes (BNP 49.97%, Jamat-Ulema-e-Islam 0.47%, Gono Odhikar Parishad  0.33%, Ganosamhati Andolon 0.14%, Bangladesh Jatiya Party (2) 0.14%, Jatiya Party (Zafar) 0.04%, NPP/Nagorik Oikya/Others 0.02%).

Jamaat/NCP-11 party alliance received 38.1% of the votes (Jamaat 31.76%, NCP 3.05%, Bangladesh Khelafat Majlish 2.09%, Khelafat Majlish 0.76%, Bangladesh Islami Front 0.45%).

Parties that did not have an alliance received 3.89% (Jatiya Party (Ershad) 0.89%, Islami Andolon Bangladesh 2.70% and other small parties).

Left leaning parties received 0.10% (including JSD, JASAD, Workers’ Party, CPB and others).

Independents received 5.79% of the votes.

In the context of total number of 12.8 crore registered voters as denominator, these percentages become much smaller (Figure 2) with BNP-led alliance getting 30.4% and Jamat/NCP-11 party alliance getting 22.7% of total registered voters. These numbers have significant implications -- current and future.

From the very start of the electoral campaign, BNP started appealing to the minorities and the Awami League voters. Presumably, they received a good proportion of votes from minorities and Awami League voters. It was expected as these voters were concerned about having a right-wing theocratic government led-by Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh. If I have to guestimate, this is at least 10% of the 51% vote that BNP-led alliance received.

The rationale is that if we generally have 70-75% turn outs in elections (25-30% not voting) and consider AL and allies would get 25% of the votes, then with around 60% vote cast we can assume that 15% of AL votes did not cast vote while 10% (that includes a large proportion of minorities) did cast their vote in this election.

Then there are some other minor issues of how many votes did BNP lose due to their rebel candidates, or would people have voted the same way had they known BNP’s stance on July Charter, etc. However, at this point, any number attached to those would be purely speculative, so we won’t discuss them.

Furthermore, we are yet to receive any info around vote casting by demographics (age groups, gender, urbanity, etc).

Around 45% of the voters were between 18-45 years old; it would be important to see how they voted. These mostly Gen Z voters led the July uprising.

If they sour on BNP because of their July stance or reluctance about the July Charter, then that should concern BNP leadership a lot. When we take these votes and the contexts into account and put AL into the mix, the picture isn’t as rosy as it seems for BNP. When AL returns and claims much of the center left, BNP might find themselves in a difficult situation in the next election.

Historically, center left is not known to vote for BNP.

So, to sum up, while the short-term gamble might have played out well for BNP, giving up much of their nationalistic brand and opposition to July Charter might prove costly in the long run.

While governing with less than 50% of the people’s mandate is not uncommon, as we have seen in the UK or our neighboring India (BJP has 37% of the votes), but it can lead to more polarization and socio-political fragmentations that can challenge the overall stability of the government.

The purpose of this article is not to belittle BNP’s victory in the 2026 election. The purpose is to peel the layers of statistics to get to the ground truth and what we can infer from them with reasonable confidence.  

Politics can change overnight and how BNP charts their course in the next few years will influence many of the issues we have discussed. We can only hope that this BNP will lead from the front in changing our politics and improving democratic environment, root out corruption, and ensure inclusivity and social justice, all of which were the aspirations of the July uprising.

Shahed Iqbal is a citizen activist and physician-scientist by profession.