No, Dhaka Is Not At Risk of a 9.0 Earthquake That Would Liquefy the City

For the past week, Bangladeshi media has been flooded with headlines claiming that an “8.2 to 9.0 magnitude earthquake could hit Dhaka at any time.” The claim is dramatic, frightening, and perfect for social media algorithms. But does science support it?

Once again, the national conversation slid quickly into panic on one side and misinformation on the other. Facebook timelines filled with self-declared experts, while the real experts -- the geologists, geophysicists, and earth-science researchers -- remained largely silent. Not because they had nothing to say, but because the system gives them no platform.

The result is a familiar cycle: an earthquake occurs, rumors spread, institutions remain quiet, and public anxiety rises.

This article aims to counter the catastrophizing with evidence, context, and the scientific reality of Bangladesh’s earthquake risk.

How the Panic Started

Much of the recent alarm stems from references to a 2016 study by Professor Syed Humayun Akhter (University of Dhaka) and Michael Steckler (Columbia University). Using GPS readings, they proposed that a “hidden plate boundary” might exist beneath or near Bangladesh -- implying the possibility of a rare mega-quake.

The idea was attention-grabbing, but also highly speculative.

In response, two senior Bangladeshi geologists published detailed critiques, pointing out that:

• No authoritative geological map shows a plate boundary running under Bangladesh
• Bangladesh’s tectonics are dominated by horizontal slip, not subduction -- and subduction is the mechanism behind most magnitude-9 earthquakes
• GPS data alone cannot determine future earthquake magnitudes or locations

Their critiques received little attention. The sensational headlines, however, did.

What the Science Actually Says

1. There is no plate boundary under Dhaka: Recognized geological authorities -- GSB, USGS, and GSI -- do not depict any tectonic plate boundary beneath Dhaka or central Bangladesh. Without such a boundary, the mechanism for a mega-quake simply does not exist.

2. The 2016 boundary “shift” is unsupported: If a plate boundary truly passed under Bangladesh, it would have been detected through decades of seismic surveys, borehole records, structural mapping, and geophysical studies. Moving a global plate boundary hundreds of kilometers based solely on GPS is a claim that requires extraordinary evidence.

3. A magnitude 9.0 quake is highly unlikely here: Mega-quakes almost always arise from subduction zones. Bangladesh is not sitting on one.

4. GPS cannot predict earthquakes: Earthquake science depends on deep geophysical imaging, fault studies, 3D basin models, and long-term seismic records -- not a single data source.

So why do such headlines keep returning?

Because fear generates clicks. And clicks generate revenue.

Why Bangladesh Panics So Easily

Part of the panic is emotional: earthquakes are sudden and uncontrollable.

But a larger part is institutional.

In most countries, the agency responsible for earthquake communication is led by geologists or seismologists. In Bangladesh, earthquake messaging falls to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department -- an institution trained in atmospheric science, not earth science.

Meanwhile, the Geological Survey of Bangladesh (GSB), which should be the primary voice, has no mandate to speak publicly about earthquakes.

The consequences are predictable:

• Meteorologists comment beyond their training
• Geologists remain institutionally silent
• Rumor, YouTube pundits, and Facebook posts fill the gap

Misinformation spreads faster than aftershocks.

What Proper Earthquake Assessment Requires

Bangladesh has valuable data -- at GSB, BAPEX, BWDB, and in academic institutions -- but it remains unintegrated.

Proper hazard assessment requires:

• Long-term GPS monitoring
• Basement-penetrating geophysical surveys
• Borehole investigations and 3D basin modelling
• Seismic records from multiple agencies
• Historical earthquake data
• Outcrop and fault studies

Bangladesh has only a handful of trained earthquake-hazard specialists, most of them in academia. Government agencies rarely include them when communicating with the public. If Bangladesh wants realistic assessment rather than viral speculation, it needs a coordinated national taskforce that brings together professionals and academics in earth science.

The Real Risk: Not a 9.0, but a 6.0

Ironically, the danger Bangladesh faces is not the apocalypse portrayed in viral posts. The real threat is a moderate to strong quake -- even a magnitude 6.0 or 6.5 -- that lasts long enough to shake the city. Such a quake would be dangerous not because of tectonics, but because of buildings. For decades, many structures were built:

• Without proper soil testing
• Without respecting building codes
• With substandard materials
• On soft or reclaimed land prone to liquefaction (search it up on Google and see what awaits Bashundhara R/A)

In those areas, even a moderate quake can cause the ground to behave like a liquid. Buildings sitting on such soil are vulnerable. The science here is clear: Dhaka’s risk comes from construction, not geology.

What the Government Actually Needs to Do

To replace panic with preparedness, Bangladesh must strengthen its scientific and regulatory foundations:

• Establish a unified earthquake taskforce of geologists, geophysicists, seismologists, and engineers.
• Integrate datasets across institutions.
• Ensure scientific agencies are led by senior earth scientists, not general Cadre officers.
• Enforce building codes -- consistently and transparently.
• Invest in earth-science education to build future capacity.

These are not optional. They are essential for national safety.

Why Calm, Accurate Information Matters

When misinformation spreads, schools close unnecessarily, families panic, and anxiety rises across the country. When accurate information spreads, communities respond responsibly. Bangladesh does face earthquake risk -- that is the reality of living in an active region. But the risk is not the apocalyptic scenario being circulated online.

The real dangers are:

• Weak enforcement
• Unsafe buildings
• Lack of preparedness
• Irresponsible communication

These are problems we can fix.

 A Final Thought

Earthquakes cannot be prevented. But panic can be. If Bangladesh chooses science over sensationalism, and preparedness over fear, we can protect both lives and public trust. Fear spreads fast.

 Facts can spread farther -- if we let them.

Asifur Rahman Khan is Deputy Director & Head of Communication, University of Liberal Arts Bangladesh (ULAB).