Bangladesh and The Myth of Sovereignty

In recent times, the idea of sovereignty has become a popular topic in Bangladesh’s political discourse. But let’s make one thing clear: Bangladesh has never been a truly sovereign state. In fact, very few countries in the world can claim full sovereignty today. We often hear about “protecting sovereignty,” but nobody talks about the fact that the king has no clothes. 

So first, let’s put some clothes on -- and then protect them.

The Three Levels of Sovereignty

Sovereign states: These are countries whose policies, security, and economy are almost completely self-controlled. Very few nations fall into this category today because the global economy is deeply interconnected. Only the United States, China, and Russia qualify. If we lower the bar slightly, France and the United Kingdom could also fit here.

Quasi-Sovereign States: These states make their own policies but have deep trade, technology, or security ties with external partners. Examples: Turkey, UAE, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Germany, India, Japan, Singapore.

Non-Sovereign States: In these countries, major powers directly influence or control key decisions. They are economically and militarily dependent, and their policymaking is not self-sufficient. 

Where Bangladesh Stands

Bangladesh belongs to the third group (Non-Sovereign) -- but closer to the upper end, near the quasi-sovereign level. In some areas, Bangladesh makes its own policies. However, US political conditions, Chinese and Japanese infrastructure loans, and India’s regional influence limit that independence.

Our goal should be to move firmly into the quasi-sovereign category -- to make our own decisions while skillfully using multiple major powers to serve our national interests. This approach is called intelligent dependence -- we remain dependent in some ways, but we control how that dependence works. Bangladesh hasn’t reached this stage yet, but it can -- and it can do so without provoking any major power.

The Strategy: Non-Zero-Sum Diplomacy

In international politics, we often hear about the Zero-Sum Game -- where one side’s gain equals another side’s loss. For Bangladesh, that mindset doesn’t work. Our ideal strategy should be to create a Non-Zero-Sum Game, where the interests of all major powers are connected. When all sides benefit, no single power will have an incentive to pressure us. This approach will allow Bangladesh to achieve quasi-sovereign independence -- where it can make its own policies without depending on any one partner.

How Bangladesh Can Maintain Balance

1. Economic Cooperation with the US, But No Military Alignment

The US wants to bring Bangladesh into the Indo-Pacific alliance to counter China and even India too.

But Bangladesh’s strategy should be: economic cooperation without military alignment.

We should focus on attracting American private investment in:

● Textiles

● IT

● Energy

● Agriculture

● Renewable power

To attract this investment, we must ensure:

● Skilled labor

● Low taxes

● Minimal bureaucracy

The US can benefit by manufacturing goods in Bangladesh at a lower cost, boosting profits for their Consumer Industrial Complex (CIC). At the same time, Bangladesh can expand economically. We should not sign any military security agreements unless we really have to. We should keep the western military industrial complex (MIC) at bay. MIC thrives in chaos and instability, whereas CIC thrives and drives stability. Both MIC and CIC are owned by roughly the same groups of capital owners. Greater ROI (Return on Investment) of CIC is itself a deterrence to any regional instability.

So both sides win, and Bangladesh avoids direct pressure. Some limited cooperation is acceptable which we have been doing over the years:

● Civil defense drills (fire service, disaster management)

● Counter-terrorism training

● Occasional purchase of small-scale military equipment

But nothing beyond that.

We will never reach China’s level of power -- so the US security establishment will see our neutrality as non-threatening. And if any issue arises, their business lobbies (the CIC) will quietly support Bangladesh from within.

2. Conditional Cooperation with China

China’s main goal is to tie Bangladesh into its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) -- ensuring long-term strategic influence.

Bangladesh’s strategy should be conditional partnership through joint ventures.

For example:

● The Payra Port can use Chinese financing, but the operator should be a Bangladeshi, American, and Gulf joint venture. 

Contracts with China must be long-term, which usually are, but profits must be shared -- with Bangladesh and its other partners. That keeps China engaged but prevents over-dependence.

3. Diversifying Partners:Japan, Korea, and ASEAN

Japan and South Korea want a world where manufacturing is not completely dependent on China. They see Bangladesh as a potential alternative hub in South Asia. Bangladesh should strengthen military and industrial ties with these countries. They are US allies but far less predatory in their approach. Even though China, Japan, and Korea have triangular hate relationship, those tensions won’t affect us much.

Bangladesh should buy arms and technology from them and aim for joint production in the long term. Neither China nor the US would see this as a threat, rather Japanese-Bangladeshi joint production would have western capital’s exposure like Turkiye and even China.

4. Bringing in GCC Investment

Bangladesh should fully use its Muslim identity as an advantage. Investment from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) -- especially Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar -- can serve as a strategic economic shield for Bangladesh.

If their sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) invest in:

● LNG terminals

● Agricultural processing (Halal industry)

● Infrastructure

Then Bangladesh’s economy will gain foreign stakes that help protect it from regional or political pressure. These Gulf investments will allow Bangladesh to balance both the US and China, since GCC countries maintain good ties with both sides. This will strengthen Bangladesh’s economic independence while limiting the one-sided influence of any regional power.

5. Managing Relations with India

India’s main goal is to keep Bangladesh within its political and economic orbit -- essentially as a manageable satellite. However, India will not attack Bangladesh. The idea of “Akhand Bharat” (Greater India) is mostly a Hindutva political tool -- useful for energizing BJP’s ideological base, but unrealistic in practice.

India knows it cannot absorb 200 million potentially hostile people in a land full of rivers and floodplains -- it would collapse from internal strain.

So Bangladesh should aim for normal relations, but refuse to see the world through India’s eyes. A clear boundary must be drawn. Our policy should be one of simultaneous cooperation and deterrence. India can use Bangladeshi routes to transport non-military goods to its eastern states -- but the system must be designed so that Bangladesh earns maximum profit from it.

We don’t need a sudden military buildup. Our defense capability should grow gradually with GDP growth. As a commitment device, Bangladesh should position GCC and Japanese investments in areas where India might apply pressure. If India tries to pressure Bangladesh, it would also damage its relations with Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Japan -- countries that India values highly. This multi-partner model will prevent any single power from dominating us. It will also give Bangladesh bargaining power in every direction.

In short, Bangladesh must create a global balance of interests -- where our policies maximize mutual benefit, and where interference in our internal affairs would hurt foreign investors themselves.

Expected Outcomes

If Bangladesh successfully implements this strategy:

● Both the US and China will try to court Bangladesh --- but Bangladesh will remain neutral, and both sides will accept that neutrality

● India will not be able to interfere directly, because while it loses the chance to dominate us, it still benefits from trade and regional stability. Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s economy will be protected by the interests of GCC, Japan, and US investors.

● Japan, Korea, and the US will transfer technology, viewing Bangladesh as an alternative to China. This will gradually build our industrial capacity.

The Realistic Goal

In today’s global system, complete sovereignty is impossible for Bangladesh. But quasi-sovereignty -- smart, balanced, and interest-driven -- can bring us stability, growth, and dignity.

That is where Bangladesh’s real strength and future happiness lie.