Election is Coming

"When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth," Sherlock Holmes famously told his friend Dr Watson. And that’s what I tell anyone in Dhaka who express grave concerns about whether there will be an election in February.

I argue, what would happen if there were no election in February? Would Professor Yunus govern indefinitely? Would there be another election-time government? Would the military take over? Since all the alternatives look less possible than a February election under Prof Yunus -- isn’t that the most likely outcome? 

Somehow, my interlocutors are rarely convinced. Indeed, many of them retort with grim certitude that election will not happen in February. And typically, the supposedly more informed one is (with the exception of one particular group), the stronger the view that election will not take place on time.

Well, one clear finding of the latest Innovision survey is that I have been hanging around with a pretty unusual crowd!

The first set of results from the second round of People’s Election Pulse Survey has just come out.

One key finding is that the public expect and want a February election. Nearly nine out of ten respondents support the February election timing, nearly seven out of ten believe the Interim Government will deliver it, and over nine out of ten say that they will vote. It is clear what the general people believe.

I mentioned above one group of people I hear from who are informed and don’t share the worries of other supposedly informed people. I have found veteran politicians to be sanguine, even relaxed, about the election. Usually, the more experienced a politician is, the more upbeat they are about a peaceful election occurring on time. "Trust the people," the seniormost I have met recently said. 

The poll shows that politicians know the public pulse far better than the political commentators of the chattering classes and social media bubble. 

Of course, whenever a poll contradicts what passes for the conventional wisdom among the chatterati, a typical response is that a survey of a few thousand people cannot possibly reflect the general perception in the society. This piece is not the place for a primer on poll methodology, I refer the interested reader to this podcast.

Then there are the conspiracy theorists and partisan bots, who come up with weird conspiracy theories about the motives of the pollsters. Ironically, as the nation gets all aboard the election express, this kind of partisan cacophony will only get louder. For now, however, I wonder what kind of tales will be weaved about these results that suggest that while people expect and want a February election, they also tend to be generally positive about the interim government’s performance.

Nearly eight out of ten people have expressed a favourable view of the interim government -- that is very different from the doom and gloom one sees in the social media (and yes, among my interlocutors). Among the sliver of the society that talk about politics in the mainstream and social media, it is almost an article of faith that the election will be a very violent affair with parties and factions braying for blood. Well, apparently around six out of ten respondents differ with the pundit class and think the election will be a rather peaceful affair. 

Our politicians, as opposed to the political pundits, ought to be congratulated for conducting themselves in a manner such that the people expect a peaceful election season. And our pundit class, myself included, need to go out of our bubbles a bit more.

It’s not all good news from Innovision, however. Nearly six out of ten respondents think extortion has gone up in the past six months. Interestingly, when pressed further, only three out of ten could point to a personal (own or that of friends or family) experience, and over six out ten said they came to know about higher extortions from social media or TV news.

Also a bad news for the reformistas (and I confess to being a card carrying member of the said class of activists) from the poll: the flagship reform proposal of a proportionately represented upper house has little resonance with the public -- almost six out of ten don’t know or never even heard of it.

Those of us who want to see more accountability and transparency in our politics, the clear lesson is to go back to the drawing board and devise ways to better connect with the people. But for now, let us celebrate the expectations of a peaceful election in February.